Influenced by slide of macro economy, people all over the world are all conservative and pessimistic about the industrial prediction in 2009 and also the mobile phone industry is affected by it to some extent. It is said that the first half year could appear retardation in economics, and the economic growth of whole year could hardly have the prosperous condition like before growing by double. However, Topology Research Institute (TRI) considers that luckily the mobile phone has the “3H” elements - “High dependency”, “High integration”, and “High speed Internet Access”, which will be the last defensive line for consumers to abandon considering the needs of shopping as economic situation is slowing down. Therefore, mobile phone industry might be one of few ICT industries, which could resist the economic cold wave and shake.

Personalized design heighten Consumers’ Dependency

For modern people, apart from keys and wallet, mobile phone is one of the three necessary items when they go out. In 2008, the penetration rate of mobile phone in the developing countries is over 51% and more than 94% in the developed countries. The high dependency that consumers have towards mobile phone is the largest difference between mobile phone and other consuming electronic products. In terms of general products, many people or a family could share the same product. Yet as mentioning the owning mode of the mobile phone products of high personalization; it has become that one has his/her own mobile phone, and sometimes more than owning one since mobile phone has identification connection and is easy to carry with. For people, mobile phone is not purely a commercial product of technology but a daily life necessary.

Moreover, combining with the sale strategies of telecom operators such as signing contract or lowing price and free new mobile phone promotion; all these can make consumers continue using and purchasing mobile phones even in the condition of economic slowdown. Therefore, mobile phone is less influenced by the economic storm and will be the last electronic product that consumers would abandon or they wouldn’t even choose to do so. Take the market in China as an example, although it has been through the snow disaster in February and the global financial crisis after June causing the stock market to drop significantly, but the growing number of mobile phone users has not been less than the number in 2007. From January to August, the monthly average of new users is close to 8.6 millions which is far more than the yearly average of 7.75 millions in the later half year of 2007. It demonstrates a lot of contrast to the aspect of economic prosperity.

High Integration Defeats Consumption Contraction

Consumption Contraction is the natural result of economic slide. All sorts of technology products have shared consumption momentum and also become the sufferers under the economic consideration. Therefore, owning a mobile phone with multi-functions such as picture, video, game, navigation, editor, and storage of high integration has the meanings of technology revolution and technology development in terms of product itself. In fact, what is more important is that the attraction of “1 Price, more Products” of mobile phone makes market and consumers irresistible and tend to purchase the all-in-one products in order to cut down other expenditure of consuming electronic products.

To observe the condition in the Indian market, the low price mobile phones with photo-taking function are not many, but until 2009, TRI predicts that the thought of “1 Price, more Products” of mobile phone will also influence the market. The emerging markets will follow the significant trend of multi-functions integration and start the upgrade trend of mobile phone. For the general markets, although 2 Mega pixel is the main trend, but the high-level photo mobile phone has improved towards 3 Mega pixel as well as adding the functions that general digital camera has such as xenon flash, face tracking, image optimizer, 16x auto focus, red-eye reduction, and photo blog.

In terms of music mobile phone, TRI predicts that the global output should be able to reach 100 millions. The penetration rate of music mobile phone among global mobile phone has achieved 69.5%. Mobile phone combined with charger base for playing music will be the hot products since the requirement of sound quality has become higher; the quality of the speaker has also become an emphasizing point. Certainly, the smart phone, which has the highest function integration, will be one of the strongest items, even when facing economic slowdown; it can still maintain more than 30% yearly growth rate in 2009. It actively enters the consuming market, which is its individual way for surviving.

High Speed Internet Establishes New Commercial Mode

While observing the mobile phone industry development, another element that can’t be ignored is the high speed Internet Access. Since HSDPA (High Speed Download Packet Access) has been gradually prevalent in the market, telecom operators energetically promote Flat Rate and introduce the low-price promotion of mobile device such as iPhone and HTC Touch Diamond, the so-called smart- phones. These methods can help consumers free from worrying about too much cost charged from using the Internet via mobile phone and further promote the desire of using the Internet through mobile phone and updating equipment. Therefore, in 2009, we will see the telecom operators, brand mobile phones, and international network service providers all start to actively plan the new application of wireless transmission market.

For telecom operators, the biggest advantage is to precisely obtain users’ personal data which can understand more about their differences and vigorously provide all kinds of services such as LBS for adding value. The development of 3.5G and software structure also drive the development of wireless communication service so the service of mobile multi-media will become prevalent. It is also the reason why the software and hardware brands such as Microsoft, Apple, Google, Sony, Nokia, HTC, and Motorola all participate in the mobile media. In terms of components, since it has become more obvious that industrial technology progress and mobile phone are moving towards the slim type. Moreover, there will be more new components, which are competitive in terms of price and effectiveness, causing impact on the original supply chains. All these are the foreseeable changes in the mobile phone industry in 2009.

TRI indicates that Taiwan could grasp the reviving opportunity from smart- phone and Motorola in 2009 and use steady growth as the yearly expectation in the risky economic condition. Global mobile phones have been influenced by macro economy and economic slowdown so the rate of the output is hard to see it grow by double. The amount of 2G/2.5G CDMA mobile phones will decline 6 millions but the GSM/GPRS/EDGE mobile phones will increase 48 millions, meanwhile 3G/3.5G WCDMA and CDMA2000 mobile phones can increase 6 millions. Calculating the total will still have increasing amount of 10 millions. TRI believes the macro economy could improve in the later half of 2009; therefore, the growing rate of mobile phone output will reach 7.4%; the output of global mobile phones is predicted to reach 1.45 Billions which can still maintain positive development in predicament.