In 2010, when economy will regain strength, consumer electronics should see shipment revisit double-digit growth, as NB, handset, LCD TV and new products like electronic book and BD Player/Disc should lead with highest market shares, while LCD TV should feature the grandest growth momentum. Maxwell Chang, analyst with Topology Research Institute, points out riding on such four bullish developments as continued growth of China’s domestic market, Europe’s conversion to digital channels, improved affordability of LED TV, and international heavyweights resuming normal operations, LCD TV sales should amount to US$84.3bn in 2010, up 5.3% from US$80bn in 2009.

To get a bigger slice of this business, international TV market forerunners are expected to launch a number of LED TV and 3D TV sets to get the attention of consumers. LED TV, which debuted in 2009, should kick into high gear in 2010 when its shipments are en route to grow 621% YoY to 20mn units, thereby benefiting Taiwanese upstream suppliers and TV set assemblers. About the TV assembly market, Chang further analyzes that Taiwan’s LCD TV assemblers have consolidated into such six for-hire players as TPV, Amtran, Wistron, Compal, AUO, and Hon Hai, who are on the receiving end of over 90% of the international OEM/ODM orders in Taiwan. The picture painted here is increased competiton among a handful of surviving players.

LED and 3D to turn new leaf of LCD TV

Topology Research Institute points out that going forward, LCD TV will gravitate toward such designs as 3D, LED backlight, frameless, and cinematic screen. LED TV, in particular, is being put on a pedestal as it shrinks its price difference with garden-variety LCD TV, enjoys support from brand-name vendors, and features such good qualities as light-weight, slim form factor, and energy efficiency. Chang indicates that LED TV, to which low comparison bases are still applicable, should see shipments grow 621% YoY to 21.257mn units in 2010, when LED models will cost only 1.2-1.4x as much as CCFL models. Worldwide, LED TV as a part of LCD TV shipments will rise from 2.3% to 13.6%.

Not as hyped as LED TV, 3D TV is also filling market will anticipation as vendors have channeled large amounts of resources to its development and should introduce it to the market in 2H10. According to US Consumer Electronics Association (CEA), over 50% of US consumers are willing to pay more for TV sets capable of 3D playback, and over 41mn people have experienced 3D effect in a movie theater. With HD and Full HD TV continuing to penetrate the general populations, and issues like low resolution and visual fatigue being sorted out one by one, 3D TV market should fast emerge as a major business as 3D Full HD slim TV will spearhead next-generation LCD TV development.

For-hire manufacturing converges onto a few Taiwanese players to unveil cut-throat competition

In 2010, LCD TV shipments should come in at 156mn units, up 20% YoY. While Korean and Chinese TV brandname vendors still primarily fabricate their own products, Japanese giants have stepped up outsourcing to open up good opportunities for Taiwanese LCD TV assemblers to expand. Chang predicts that in 2010, on OEM/ODM orders from overseas, Taiwan’s LCD TV shipments should grow 52% YoY to 33mn units for a global market share of 21.2%. Overall, LCD TV has a bright future to look forward to. After years of competitive screening, the elite sixsome of TPV, Amtran, Compal, Wistronn, AUO, and Hon Hai control over 90% of LCD TV assembly business in Taiwan for a very high level of concentration.

Chang further analyses that Taiwan’s LCD TV OEM/ODM business come in four differenet models, namely TV set, Module + TV Set, Array + Cell + Module, and Array + Cell + Module + TV Set. Currently Module + TV Set is most popular among OEM/ODM manufacturers. While manufacturers differ in modes of operations, they are vying for the same pool of clients. That is, to beat one another to orders, they engage each other in cut-throat competition, which should only get worse as time goes by. The ongoing LCD TV growth will benefit not only Taiwanese TV assemblers, but also Taiwan’s LED enterprises that work closely with leading LCD TV plants in China and Korea.