Bidding global financial turmoil farewell, the globe has seen PC shipments fare more strongly than market consensus in 2009, when Netbook has played a crucial role. Netbook has penetrated the market and driven down NB ASP so quickly that consumer section has become the bulk of the PC market in 2009, when PC market will not fare as badly as earlier expected. To be exact, the PC shipment is en route to a positive growth of 1.27% YoY for 2009 full-year, compared to the grim forecast of a contracton by 2.4%.

Entering 2010, when economy will get better to put derailed market demand back on track, Jane Tseng, the Researcher of Topology Research Institute, is of the opinion that the overall PC market will resume normal growth pattern, as worldwide, PC shipments should reach 318mn units, up 10.37% YoY, in 2010. NB, in particular, will draw energy from Windows 7 coming on board, prevalence of mobile broadband coverage, recovery of commerical model demand, personalization of the consumer models, and innovation by vendors to post 2010 shipmentof 185mn units, up 21.71% YoY, according to Topology Research Institute. Commercial NB market should usher in a wave of replacement demand in 2H10, so that the consumer NB market will not steal the entire show.

NB shipment grows on replacement trend, personalization, and mobile internet

With price difference narrowing between NB and DT, NB has increasingly replaced DT, espcially in the consumer NB market where personalization is paramount while management performance is not much of a concern. In late 2008, when Netbook began to take the market by storm, NB’s penetration of the global PC market had surpassed that of DT. In 2009, NB should chalk up PC market penetration of 54%, up from 50.5% toward the end of 2008. What’s noteworthy is that substitution of NB for DT will pick up paces to keep pushing NB market growth in 2010, when NB should penetrate up to 59.5% of the PC market.

In addition to the replacement demand, Tseng said that consumer market will be able to expand on the newly-adopted doctrine that a personal computer, by definition, should be owned by each and every individual, instead of a household. Also, with 3.5G network deployed for greater signal coverage, making up for what’s insufficient with Wi-Fi in terms of mobility, high-speed mobile broadband network will expand to bring out NB’s edge of being capable of staying online while on the go. All these will prove conducive to continued growth of NB market. And to jump on the bandwagon of Windows 7 launched toward the end of 2009, NB vendors have fielded a number of models to take advantage of the sense of novelty among consumers. Topology Research Institute predicts that in 2010, NB shipments will total 185mn units, up 21.71% YoY.

Vendors innovate to create buzz for 2010

For a preview of NB product lines for 2010, 15-inch models will remain market mainstream, accounting for 38.1% of total NB shipments; Netbook, which played title role in 2009, will evlove from 10.1 inch to 11.6 inch models. Average NB and Netbook alike, shipments will grow the fastest with 11.6-inch, 12.1-inch, and 13.3-inch models, as consumer gravitate toward lightness and slimness. And there are a variety of new products that will inspire NB buying sentiment in 2010.

Also worth mentioning is the anticipation that in 2H10, ARM camp will launch Smartbook, while Google will launch Chrome operating system, which could be a variable that will have impact on NB shipment growth in 2010. Tablet PCs that run on Windows 7 also stand a chance of becoming a highlight of NB market growth in 2010. Apple Tablet, in particular, can fall back on its touch-control function and App Store services to act as a market benchmark.

Brandname vendors tied up in tight race; ODMs vie for market share

We can take a look at 2009 global NB brandname rankings and find that the top four players, namely HP, Acer, Dell, and Toshiba, have become fixtures, while the fifth to the tenth places are fiercely vied for. Samsung has built a solid presence in European market with its Netbook products, witnessing fast rise in market share ranking; Fujitsu saw its standing consistently slip to the 10th place, with MSI hot on its tails. Lenovo is ridig on fast recovery of Chinese market to stabilize its market share to remain among the top five NB brandname in the world. Asus faltered in 1H09 in central and eastern Europe, failing to gain up on Lenovo in market share. Entering 2010, Topology Research Institute expect no change to the ranking, but Samsung at ninth place and Sony at eighth place will continue to engage each other in cut-throat competition, while HP and Acer will continue to elbow each other for market share crown.

Meanwhile, affected by Netbook, average NB is set to see ASP fall 18.2% YoY, a decline of rare magnitude in years. Topology Research Institute expect ASP to keep falling in 2010 when brandname vendors will have to fast find ways to cut costs and enhance profit margins, opening up opportunities for EMS providers capable of low-cost manufacturing. Tseng taps Quanta as having the greatest growth potential in 2010, when its shipment is projected to grow 37% YoY. Inventec and Pegatron, by comparison, will feel the pinch of global competition. Overall, it remains to be seen whether Taiwanese ODMs can put their competitiveness to good use, deepen vertical/horizontal integration, and diversify operations, so as to emerge as winners.